Climate finance
Where bank credit is concentrated relative to climate hazard, how farm non-performing loans evolve, and how large green bonds are in Morocco.
Updated : 6 November 2026
1 Bank credit and climate hazard
Bank credit and climate hazard by region and city
This section matches the distribution of bank credit by locality, published monthly by Bank Al-Maghrib, with a climate hazard index for each region and city. It shows what share of credit is booked in areas more exposed to heat, drought and extreme rainfall. Latest month available: June 2026.
Regions
| Region | Hazard index | Credit (bn DH) | Share | Share excl. head offices | Credit per capita (DH) | Credit / deposits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | 71 | 11.1 | 0.9 % | 3.7 % | 4,390 | 21 % |
| Draa-Tafilalet | 65 | 4.1 | 0.3 % | 1.4 % | 2,492 | 20 % |
| Marrakesh-Safi | 64 | 43.3 | 3.3 % | 14.6 % | 8,853 | 41 % |
| Oriental | 61 | 20.6 | 1.6 % | 6.9 % | 8,991 | 19 % |
| Souss-Massa | 61 | 42.0 | 3.2 % | 14.1 % | 13,896 | 51 % |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | 55 | 1.7 | 0.1 % | 0.6 % | 3,869 | 25 % |
| Fez-Meknes | 51 | 44.3 | 3.4 % | 14.9 % | 9,920 | 39 % |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | 43 | 2.1 | 0.2 % | 0.7 % | 9,608 | 46 % |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | 41 | 10.0 | 0.8 % | 3.4 % | 22,273 | 93 % |
| Casablanca-Settat | 36 | 866.9 | 67.0 % | 11.9 % | 112,742 | 161 % |
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | 32 | 40.0 | 3.1 % | 13.4 % | 9,915 | 32 % |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | 21 | 206.7 | 16.0 % | 14.4 % | 40,276 | 86 % |
Change since 2014
At year end, the share of the four most exposed regions (Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Draa-Tafilalet, Marrakesh-Safi, Oriental) in credit outside Casablanca and Rabat went from 30.9% in 2014 to 26.7% in 2025. Largest share gains (points): Rabat-Sale-Kenitra (+3.2), Casablanca-Settat (+2.1), Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra (+1.4).
End-of-December files for each year (2015 not available here). The hazard index is fixed over time; only the distribution of credit changes.
Does credit growth slow in drought years?
Annual credit growth for each region (excluding Casablanca and Rabat, log, December on December), after removing the year mean (shock common to the whole country) and then the region mean. A statistical association, not a causal effect.
Non-performing loans in agriculture
According to the financial stability reports, the non-performing loan rate in agriculture rose from 8.6% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2025, while the banking average stayed close to 8.3%. The rise follows several consecutive drought years; the 2025 report links it to "a structural vulnerability related to climate hazards". Four years are not enough for any statistical test.
| Year | Agriculture | Banking average | Gap (points) | National drought, December SPEI-12 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.6 % | 8.4 % | +0.2 | −1.48 | FSR 2022, p. 70 |
| 2023 | 8.9 % | 8.5 % | +0.4 | −2.46 | FSR 2023, p. 65 |
| 2024 | 10.4 %* | 8.4 % | +2.0 | −1.42 | FSR 2024, p. 65 |
| 2025 | 13.2 %* | 8.3 % | +4.9 | +0.17 | FSR 2025, p. 72 |
* Agriculture and fishing together from 2024; agriculture alone before. Reports before 2022 do not give this rate. Each year as published in its own report (later revisions possible).
For all banks, the annual change in the NPL rate is not significantly associated with national drought in the same year (r = 0.46, p = 0.119, 13 years, 2012-2024). The drought effect shows in directly exposed sectors, such as agriculture, more than in the overall average.
Cities (18)
| City | Hazard index | Credit (bn DH) | Share | Branches | Credit / deposits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beni Mellal | 71 | 3.50 | 0.27 % | 50 | 30 % |
| Agadir | 69 | 28.63 | 2.21 % | 172 | 67 % |
| Errachidia | 68 | 0.98 | 0.08 % | 23 | 28 % |
| Marrakesh | 67 | 33.33 | 2.57 % | 267 | 44 % |
| Oujda | 66 | 9.63 | 0.74 % | 151 | 33 % |
| Guelmim | 59 | 0.93 | 0.07 % | 21 | 24 % |
| Fez | 56 | 19.35 | 1.49 % | 229 | 37 % |
| Meknes | 53 | 16.79 | 1.30 % | 158 | 52 % |
| Settat | 52 | 2.27 | 0.17 % | 36 | 31 % |
| Safi | 46 | 5.07 | 0.39 % | 54 | 48 % |
| Laayoune | 45 | 9.34 | 0.72 % | 54 | 102 % |
| Dakhla | 43 | 2.11 | 0.16 % | 25 | 46 % |
| Tetouan | 41 | 6.11 | 0.47 % | 70 | 29 % |
| Casablanca | 39 | 831.40 | 64.21 % | 1,053 | 181 % |
| Tangier | 34 | 25.39 | 1.96 % | 230 | 37 % |
| Al Hoceima | 34 | 1.13 | 0.09 % | 30 | 18 % |
| Kenitra | 34 | 13.81 | 1.07 % | 115 | 56 % |
| Rabat | 24 | 164.04 | 12.67 % | 273 | 111 % |
The municipality alone, without neighbouring ones (for example Casablanca without Mohammedia). A city's drought value is that of its region.
Hazard index components
| Region | Days ≥ 35 °C per year | Warming per decade | Months of severe drought | 100-year daily rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | 69 | 0.74 °C | 11.9 % | 64 mm |
| Draa-Tafilalet | 82 | 0.55 °C | 10.0 % | 69 mm |
| Marrakesh-Safi | 48 | 0.66 °C | 13.6 % | 47 mm |
| Oriental | 21 | 0.53 °C | 12.4 % | 76 mm |
| Souss-Massa | 41 | 0.41 °C | 10.7 % | 134 mm |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | 39 | 0.45 °C | 15.2 % | 50 mm |
| Fez-Meknes | 43 | 0.60 °C | 10.0 % | 60 mm |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | 1 | 0.18 °C | 14.7 % | 79 mm |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | 3 | 0.23 °C | 13.3 % | 68 mm |
| Casablanca-Settat | 5 | 0.27 °C | 12.1 % | 58 mm |
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | 2 | 0.26 °C | 8.9 % | 89 mm |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | 3 | 0.22 °C | 9.8 % | 62 mm |
For each component, regions (or cities) are ranked from 0 to 100, and the index is the mean of the four ranks. It is relative: 100 means the highest hazard within Morocco, not an absolute threshold. Source: ERA5 series since 1991 published on the site (hot days: 1991-2020 normal; drought: share of months with SPEI-3 ≤ −1.5).
A descriptive exposure measure, not an estimate of losses or of a causal effect. Bank Al-Maghrib books credit in the locality of the branch that granted it, not necessarily where the financed activity takes place; credit to large firms is often booked at their head offices in Casablanca and Rabat. "Other localities" are a small share not assigned to a region. The breakdown of credit by sector within each region is not available here.
Source : Bank Al-Maghrib, distribution of branches, deposits and credit by locality (thousand DH) ; HCP, RGPH 2024 ; Observatory calculations.
2 Green finance
Green bonds in Morocco
6 green or "social and green" issues are recorded between 2016 and 2018, for a known amount of about MAD 4.0 billion (nearly 4 billion according to the financial press). The market then almost stopped: according to the Amundi-IFC report, Morocco's green issuance totals about USD 0.4 billion over 2012-2023, with none in 2023.
| Issuer | Date | Amount (MAD m) | Use of proceeds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masen | Nov 2016 | 1,150 | Co-financing of the Noor solar plants Morocco's first green bond. | Le Matin, 25/05/2024 · Finances News, 27/11/2017 |
| BMCE Bank (Bank of Africa) | Nov 2016 | 500 | Renewable energy and energy efficiency Issue ceiling, AMMC approval of 4 November 2016, 5-year maturity. | AMMC, note d'information 2016 · Le Matin, 25/05/2024 |
| Banque Centrale Populaire | 2017 | 1,500 | Green projects About MAD 1.5 billion, in foreign currency. Another source dates it to 2018. | Finances News, 27/11/2017 · Le Matin, 25/05/2024 |
| Attijariwafa bank | — | — | Not stated Listed in the first wave after COP22, without an amount. | Finances News, 09/03/2020 |
| Casablanca Finance City | 2018 | 335 | LEED-certified buildings Another source gives MAD 355 million. | Le Matin, 25/05/2024 · Oxford Business Group, 2020 |
| Al Omrane Group · social and green | Nov 2018 | 500 | Energy efficiency and housing The "Social & Green" tranche of a MAD 1 billion operation. | Le Matin, 25/05/2024 · Oxford Business Group, 2020 |
Manual count from public sources, last checked 2026-10-27; no official downloadable database exists. Discrepancies between sources are flagged. Bank Al-Maghrib's investments in World Bank green bonds are not Moroccan issues and are excluded. Le Matin (Amundi-IFC)