Alerts
These alerts are generated automatically from the data: a region entering severe or extreme drought, and heatwaves. They do not replace official bulletins from the national meteorological service.
31 alerts over 12 months
Updated : 6 November 2026
- Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima severe drought
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitra severe drought
- Casablanca-Settat severe drought
- Guelmim-Oued Noun extreme drought
Flood risk over 7 days
- Souss (Taroudant)Watchexpected peak : Mon 9 Nov
- forecast flow 909 m³/s (≥ 20-year flood)
- Tensift (Ait Ourir)Watchexpected peak : Thu 12 Nov
- forecast flow 88 m³/s (≥ 2-year flood)
- Sebou (Sidi Kacem)Watchexpected peak : Thu 12 Nov
- forecast flow 187 m³/s (≥ 2-year flood)
- Loukkos (Ksar El Kebir)Watchexpected peak : Thu 12 Nov
- forecast flow 1,098 m³/s (≥ 5-year flood)
All points (24)
| Point | Level | Max. forecast rain | 30-day rain / threshold | Forecast flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souss (Taroudant) · basin | Watch | 4 mm / 1 j | 3 / 76 mm | 909 m³/s |
| Tensift (Ait Ourir) · basin | Watch | 4 mm / 5 j | 44 / 92 mm | 88 m³/s |
| Sebou (Sidi Kacem) · basin | Watch | 17 mm / 5 j | 43 / 123 mm | 187 m³/s |
| Loukkos (Ksar El Kebir) · basin | Watch | 22 mm / 3 j | 47 / 168 mm | 1,098 m³/s |
| Moulouya (Guercif) · basin | None | 2 mm / 1 j | 9 / 51 mm | 10 m³/s |
| Oum Er-Rbia (Khenifra) · basin | None | 8 mm / 1 j | 54 / 133 mm | 4 m³/s |
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | None | 49 mm / 5 j | 23 / 142 mm | — |
| Oriental | None | 1 mm / 3 j | 15 / 79 mm | — |
| Fez-Meknes | None | 14 mm / 5 j | 47 / 115 mm | — |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | None | 3 mm / 1 j | 9 / 114 mm | — |
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | None | 2 mm / 1 j | 79 / 124 mm | — |
| Casablanca-Settat | None | 5 mm / 1 j | 9 / 83 mm | — |
| Marrakesh-Safi | None | 0 mm / 1 j | 44 / 68 mm | — |
| Draa-Tafilalet | None | 7 mm / 3 j | 107 / 31 mm | — |
| Souss-Massa | None | 31 mm / 1 j | 1 / 108 mm | — |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | None | 0 mm / 1 j | 6 / 40 mm | — |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | None | 0 mm / 1 j | 28 / 16 mm | — |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | None | 1 mm / 3 j | 36 / 8 mm | — |
| Tetouan · city | None | 3 mm / 1 j | 24 / 139 mm | — |
| Al Hoceima · city | None | 1 mm / 1 j | 29 / 95 mm | — |
| Meknes · city | None | 8 mm / 1 j | 36 / 114 mm | — |
| Kenitra · city | None | 4 mm / 5 j | 16 / 149 mm | — |
| Settat · city | None | 3 mm / 5 j | 12 / 86 mm | — |
| Safi · city | None | 3 mm / 1 j | 6 / 82 mm | — |
Back-test: 2025-26 season
The same rules are applied to every day of the season, treating the rain that actually fell over the next five days as a perfect forecast. This shows whether the rules catch major events, but does not measure the error of real forecasts.
| Point | First alert | Alert days | Highest level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | 23 January 2026 | 10 | Alert 2 February 2026 |
| Tetouan · city | 30 January 2026 | 10 | Alert 3 February 2026 |
| Marrakesh-Safi | 31 December 2025 | 8 | Alert 13 January 2026 |
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | 19 January 2026 | 5 | Alert 19 January 2026 |
| Loukkos (Ksar El Kebir) · basin | 30 January 2026 | 5 | Alert 2 February 2026 |
| Oum Er-Rbia (Khenifra) · basin | 31 December 2025 | 5 | Alert 1 January 2026 |
| Safi · city | 29 December 2025 | 5 | Alert 30 December 2025 |
| Casablanca-Settat | 23 December 2025 | 4 | Alert 23 December 2025 |
| Sebou (Sidi Kacem) · basin | 19 January 2026 | 3 | Alert 19 January 2026 |
| Tensift (Ait Ourir) · basin | 13 January 2026 | 2 | Alert 13 January 2026 |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | 23 December 2025 | 1 | Alert 23 December 2025 |
| Draa-Tafilalet | 9 December 2025 | 1 | Alert 9 December 2025 |
| Souss-Massa | 3 January 2026 | 1 | Alert 3 January 2026 |
| Oriental | — | 0 | Watch 7 April 2026 |
| Fez-Meknes | — | 0 | Watch 19 December 2025 |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | — | 0 | Watch 31 December 2025 |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | — | 0 | Watch 27 September 2025 |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | — | 0 | Watch 26 September 2025 |
| Moulouya (Guercif) · basin | — | 0 | — |
| Souss (Taroudant) · basin | — | 0 | Watch 29 December 2025 |
| Al Hoceima · city | — | 0 | Watch 13 November 2025 |
| Meknes · city | — | 0 | Watch 20 December 2025 |
| Kenitra · city | — | 0 | Watch 11 December 2025 |
| Settat · city | — | 0 | Watch 11 December 2025 |
Statistical estimates by the Observatory, combining three signals: forecast rainfall against return levels, soil saturation and forecast river flow (GloFAS, weighted less because the model represents dam operation poorly). They do not replace the official warnings of Morocco's General Directorate of Meteorology. marocmeteo.ma · Extreme rainfall
Heat over the next seven days
Possible heatwave
- Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima : Fri 6 Nov → Sun 8 Nov · 3 or more consecutive days
- Oriental : Sun 8 Nov → Tue 10 Nov · 3 or more consecutive days
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitra : Fri 6 Nov → Tue 10 Nov · 3 or more consecutive days
- Beni Mellal-Khenifra : Sun 8 Nov
- Casablanca-Settat : Sun 8 Nov → Tue 10 Nov · 3 or more consecutive days
- Marrakesh-Safi : Sun 8 Nov
- Guelmim-Oued Noun : Sat 7 Nov → Sun 8 Nov
- Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra : Sat 7 Nov → Sun 8 Nov
- Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab : Fri 6 Nov → Sat 7 Nov
| Region | Fri 6 Nov | Sat 7 Nov | Sun 8 Nov | Mon 9 Nov | Tue 10 Nov | Wed 11 Nov | Thu 12 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | 23° | 24° | 24° | 23° | 22° | 20° | 20° |
| Oriental | 23° | 23° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 23° | 22° |
| Fez-Meknes | 24° | 25° | 26° | 21° | 24° | 23° | 21° |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | 27° | 25° | 30° | 25° | 25° | 23° | 22° |
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | 27° | 27° | 29° | 24° | 23° | 22° | 21° |
| Casablanca-Settat | 26° | 26° | 31° | 27° | 26° | 23° | 22° |
| Marrakesh-Safi | 26° | 27° | 30° | 25° | 24° | 24° | 24° |
| Draa-Tafilalet | 21° | 22° | 22° | 18° | 20° | 19° | 19° |
| Souss-Massa | 24° | 25° | 30° | 25° | 23° | 23° | 23° |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | 27° | 30° | 31° | 27° | 26° | 24° | 23° |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | 28° | 32° | 30° | 27° | 25° | 24° | 25° |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | 29° | 35° | 29° | 27° | 27° | 29° | 25° |
Above the very hot thresholdWithin 2 °C of the threshold
Figures are forecast maximum temperatures at each regional capital. The threshold is the level that the maximum temperature exceeds on only 10% of days in the same month over 1991–2020 (same definition as the site’s “very hot days”). Hover a cell to read the threshold. The comparison is indicative: the forecast comes from a weather model, the threshold from ERA5 reanalysis. Source: Open-Meteo (weather forecasts); Observatory calculations.
Alert history (12 months)
October 2026
- Heatwave in 2 regions 25 October 2026 → 28 October 2026
4 days. Regions: Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Souss-Massa. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 3.9 °C in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra (Tmax 34.6 °C).
- Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima: entering severe drought October 2026
SPEI-3 = -1.78.
- Heatwave in 6 regions 1 October 2026 → 6 October 2026
6 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Souss-Massa, Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 4.9 °C in Souss-Massa (Tmax 38.9 °C).
September 2026
- Fez-Meknes: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -2.79.
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitra: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -3.67.
- Beni Mellal-Khenifra: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -2.30.
- Casablanca-Settat: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -3.67.
- Souss-Massa: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -3.72.
- Guelmim-Oued Noun: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -3.32.
- Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra: entering extreme drought September 2026
SPEI-3 = -3.16.
- Heatwave in 5 regions 19 September 2026 → 26 September 2026
8 days. Regions: Casablanca-Settat, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 8.0 °C in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra (Tmax 37.8 °C).
- Heatwave in 8 regions 11 September 2026 → 16 September 2026
6 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Fez-Meknes, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 9.4 °C in Casablanca-Settat (Tmax 40.4 °C).
- Heatwave in 11 regions 1 September 2026 → 9 September 2026
9 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Draa-Tafilalet, Fez-Meknes, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Oriental, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa, Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 9.7 °C in Rabat-Sale-Kenitra (Tmax 40.1 °C).
August 2026
- Heatwave in 1 region 11 August 2026 → 14 August 2026
4 days. Regions: Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 2.0 °C in Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima (Tmax 34.4 °C).
- Heatwave in 10 regions 29 July 2026 → 5 August 2026
8 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Draa-Tafilalet, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Oriental, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 4.2 °C in Souss-Massa (Tmax 46.1 °C).
July 2026
- Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima: entering extreme drought July 2026
SPEI-3 = -2.59.
- Fez-Meknes: entering severe drought July 2026
SPEI-3 = -1.76.
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitra: entering extreme drought July 2026
SPEI-3 = -2.92.
- Casablanca-Settat: entering extreme drought July 2026
SPEI-3 = -2.35.
- Heatwave in 3 regions 14 July 2026 → 24 July 2026
11 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Oriental. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.2 °C in Oriental (Tmax 42.4 °C).
- Heatwave in 6 regions 30 June 2026 → 9 July 2026
10 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Fez-Meknes, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 7.4 °C in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (Tmax 35.9 °C).
June 2026
- Heatwave in 1 region 21 June 2026 → 24 June 2026
4 days. Regions: Oriental. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.0 °C in Oriental (Tmax 39.3 °C).
- Heatwave in 11 regions 20 May 2026 → 2 June 2026
14 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Fez-Meknes, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Oriental, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa, Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 10.6 °C in Casablanca-Settat (Tmax 40.8 °C).
April 2026
- Heatwave in 9 regions 15 April 2026 → 21 April 2026
7 days. Regions: Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Fez-Meknes, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa, Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 10.1 °C in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra (Tmax 36.3 °C).
- Heatwave in 2 regions 31 March 2026 → 6 April 2026
7 days. Regions: Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 4.2 °C in Casablanca-Settat (Tmax 30.4 °C).
February 2026
- Heatwave in 11 regions 16 February 2026 → 27 February 2026
12 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Casablanca-Settat, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Draa-Tafilalet, Fez-Meknes, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Oriental, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, Souss-Massa. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.7 °C in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra (Tmax 32.3 °C).
- Heatwave in 1 region 10 February 2026 → 12 February 2026
3 days. Regions: Draa-Tafilalet. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.9 °C in Draa-Tafilalet (Tmax 28.2 °C).
January 2026
- Heatwave in 1 region 28 January 2026 → 30 January 2026
3 days. Regions: Draa-Tafilalet. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 1.5 °C in Draa-Tafilalet (Tmax 21.7 °C).
December 2025
- Heatwave in 1 region 7 December 2025 → 9 December 2025
3 days. Regions: Marrakesh-Safi. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 1.2 °C in Marrakesh-Safi (Tmax 24.1 °C).
November 2025
- Heatwave in 2 regions 8 November 2025 → 13 November 2025
6 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Oriental. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.0 °C in Oriental (Tmax 29.5 °C).
- Heatwave in 7 regions 2 November 2025 → 5 November 2025
4 days. Regions: Beni Mellal-Khenifra, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, Draa-Tafilalet, Fez-Meknes, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Marrakesh-Safi, Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima. Largest excess over the 90th percentile: 5.7 °C in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (Tmax 34.7 °C).
Definitions: severe drought when SPEI-3 falls below −1.5, extreme below −2. Heatwave: at least three consecutive days with maximum temperature above the 90th percentile for the same month in 1991–2020, at the region's representative point. Simultaneous heatwaves in several regions are grouped into one episode. Source: Open-Meteo (ERA5), Observatory calculations.
Unusual climate months
An isolation forest compares each month since 1991 with the other months in the same region, using four season-adjusted indicators: temperature anomaly, SPEI-1, SPEI-3 and very hot days. A month is flagged if it is among the 3% most unusual, through an extreme value or a rare combination (for example hot and wet at once).
September 2026
- Casablanca-Settatmany very hot days among the 0.0% most unusual since 1991
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitramany very hot days among the 0.0% most unusual since 1991
- Souss-Massatemperature far above normal among the 0.0% most unusual since 1991
- Guelmim-Oued Nounmany very hot days among the 0.0% most unusual since 1991
- Fez-Meknesmany very hot days among the 0.9% most unusual since 1991
- National averagemany very hot days among the 0.9% most unusual since 1991
- Laayoune-Sakia El Hamramany very hot days among the 0.9% most unusual since 1991
July 2026
- Casablanca-Settatvery dry month among the 2.3% most unusual since 1991
February 2026
- Draa-Tafilaletmany very hot days among the 2.3% most unusual since 1991
The variable shown is the one furthest from its usual level; it helps reading but does not on its own explain the unusualness. These signals complement the threshold-based alerts above and do not replace them.