Climate projections to 2050
How regional climate could change over 2031–2050 compared with 1991–2020, according to three high-resolution climate models under a high-emissions scenario.
+1.2 °C national warming 2031–2050 (model mean)
Updated : 6 November 2026
In brief: 2031–2050 vs 1991–2020
Main value: model mean; in brackets, the lowest and highest model.
1 The regions
- Beni Mellal-Khenifra +1.5 °C 74 → 93 d −15 %
- Fez-Meknes +1.4 °C 50 → 70 d −13 %
- Draa-Tafilalet +1.4 °C 79 → 94 d −3 %
- Oriental +1.3 °C 24 → 42 d −5 %
- Marrakesh-Safi +1.3 °C 58 → 73 d −16 %
- Souss-Massa +1.2 °C 11 → 23 d −21 %
- Guelmim-Oued Noun +1.1 °C 29 → 37 d −15 %
- Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima +1.0 °C 2 → 4 d −9 %
- Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab +1.0 °C 4 → 6 d +4 %
- Rabat-Sale-Kenitra +1.0 °C 5 → 8 d −13 %
- Casablanca-Settat +1.0 °C 5 → 7 d −11 %
- Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra +0.9 °C 6 → 8 d −21 %
Detailed table (2031–2050)
| Region | Mean temp. | Max temp. | Rainfall | Days ≥ 35 °C per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beni Mellal-Khenifra | +1.5 °C[+1.2 ; +1.7] | +1.6 °C[+1.2 ; +2.0] | −15 %[−22 ; −5] | 74 → 93+18 |
| Fez-Meknes | +1.4 °C[+1.2 ; +1.6] | +1.5 °C[+1.2 ; +2.0] | −13 %[−25 ; +3] | 50 → 70+20 |
| Draa-Tafilalet | +1.4 °C[+1.1 ; +1.6] | +1.3 °C[+1.0 ; +1.6] | −3 %[−6 ; 0] | 79 → 94+15 |
| Oriental | +1.3 °C[+1.0 ; +1.5] | +1.3 °C[+1.0 ; +1.4] | −5 %[−7 ; −4] | 24 → 42+18 |
| Marrakesh-Safi | +1.3 °C[+0.9 ; +1.5] | +1.3 °C[+0.9 ; +1.6] | −16 %[−20 ; −12] | 58 → 73+16 |
| Souss-Massa | +1.2 °C[+1.1 ; +1.3] | +1.3 °C[+1.1 ; +1.4] | −21 %[−26 ; −10] | 11 → 23+11 |
| Guelmim-Oued Noun | +1.1 °C[+0.7 ; +1.3] | +1.1 °C[+0.6 ; +1.3] | −15 %[−25 ; −9] | 29 → 37+8 |
| Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima | +1.0 °C[+0.7 ; +1.3] | +1.0 °C[+0.7 ; +1.4] | −9 %[−26 ; +9] | 2 → 4+2 |
| Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab | +1.0 °C[+0.9 ; +1.2] | +1.0 °C[+0.9 ; +1.2] | +4 %[−7 ; +20] | 4 → 6+3 |
| Rabat-Sale-Kenitra | +1.0 °C[+0.7 ; +1.2] | +1.0 °C[+0.6 ; +1.4] | −13 %[−24 ; +1] | 5 → 8+2 |
| Casablanca-Settat | +1.0 °C[+0.7 ; +1.1] | +0.9 °C[+0.6 ; +1.3] | −11 %[−17 ; 0] | 5 → 7+2 |
| Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra | +0.9 °C[+0.7 ; +1.2] | +0.9 °C[+0.7 ; +1.3] | −21 %[−34 ; −3] | 6 → 8+3 |
Change relative to 1991–2020. Models usually agree more on temperature than on rainfall.
2 National path 1991–2050
Annual temperature anomaly
Anomaly relative to each model's 1991–2020 mean. Annual model values are simulations: a model's 2035 is not a forecast of 2035 weather; read the curves as a trend and as a spread between models.
Annual rainfall (% of mean)
Days at 35 °C or more
Method and limits
- Three CMIP6 HighResMIP models, chosen in advance to represent different centres: EC-Earth3P-HR (Europe), MPI-ESM1-2-XR (Germany), MRI-AGCM3-2-S (Japan). Data from the Open-Meteo Climate API, bias-corrected to ERA5-Land.
- A single scenario, close to RCP8.5 (high emissions): results therefore represent the upper range of warming, without more moderate pathways.
- Values at each region's representative point (capital), not an average over its whole territory.
- A projection is not a forecast: it describes a possible path under emissions and model assumptions; the spread between models is part of the result.
Source : Open-Meteo, Climate API (CMIP6 HighResMIP) ; ERA5 ; Observatory calculations