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Farming, exports and rainfall

How rainfall and drought show up in farm output, food prices and farm exports. All associations shown are statistical, not causal.

Updated : 6 November 2026

1 Drought and farm output

Does rainfall show up in farm output? This section compares rainy-season drought (October to March) with agricultural value added growth in the same year.

0.61Pearson correlation, p = < 0.001
0.64Rank correlation (Spearman), p = < 0.001
34Years (1992–2025)
1.26March 2026 SPEI-6Standardised drought index: compares the balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration with what is normal for the same period. Below −1 moderate, below −1.5 severe, below −2 extreme drought. The number 3 or 12 is the number of months accumulated.

Over 1992–2025, years with a drier rainy season are associated with weaker agricultural growth, and the association is statistically significant. This is a correlation, not a measure of a causal effect: other factors (sown area, prices, irrigation, rainfall timing) also affect output.

2 Drought and food prices

Result Over 16 farming seasons, a season's drought is not significantly associated with food inflation over the following twelve months (r = −0.28, p = 0.296). Same result after removing headline inflation, i.e. for food prices relative to other prices (r = −0.24, p = 0.373). The sign is negative (stronger drought, higher food inflation) but weak, and dominated by the 2022 global shock. Imports, subsidies and energy prices weigh more on food prices than local rainfall alone.

For each farming season (September to August): August SPEI-12 and year-on-year food inflation averaged over the following twelve months. Pearson correlation over few years: a statistical association, not a causal effect.

3 Farm exports

Farm exports and rainfall

ProductLatest yearValue (USD m)Volume (kt)Link with drought
Tomatoes SH 070220251,378748 r = 0.02, p = 0.930, n = 25
Citrus SH 08052025525587 r = 0.19, p = 0.357, n = 25
Other fresh vegetables SH 07092025398299 r = 0.26, p = 0.224, n = 23
Fresh grapes SH 08061020251010 r = −0.04, p = 0.854, n = 25

Source: UN Comtrade (Morocco-reported exports to the world). Link: annual change in export volume (log) against the national August SPEI-12 of the same year. A statistical association, not a causal effect; most exported vegetables are grown in irrigated greenhouses and depend little on rainfall.